Risk Monitor
Macro Risks, Rate Sensitivity & Policy Timeline
Risk Radar: Current vs 2020
Multi-dimensional risk scoring (1-10)
Rate Sensitivity Analysis
Yield spread & affordability across RBA scenarios
RBA Policy
HIGHAfter holding at 4.35% for over two years, the RBA cut to 3.85% in Feb 2026. Further cuts depend on inflation trajectory. Any reversal would severely impact mortgage holders on variable rates.
Affordability Crisis
HIGHWorst affordability since 1995. Sydney requires 85 years of median savings. National price-to-income at 8.2x. Social and political pressure mounting for intervention.
Construction Deficit
MEDIUMHousing starts ~158K pa vs 300K target. Construction costs +25-29% since 2020. Labour shortages and material costs constrain the pipeline. This supports prices but worsens the housing crisis.
Climate Risk
MEDIUMIncreasing frequency of floods, bushfires, and extreme weather. Insurance costs rising sharply in exposed regions. Potential repricing of coastal and flood-prone properties.